Philippines Islamist Insurgency Report – February 2020

PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: Over the short term, Muslim insurgency and terrorism activity will continue to be diminished due to the degradation of militant networks as a result of government security force operations. In the long term however, continued radicalization, lack of economic development, and existing regional networks indicate that the threat will be persistent and will likely temporarily resurface at an elevated rate. The security forces appear to have made progress in diminishing the threat of suicide terrorism. The greatest threat within Muslim Mindanao appears to be from operations that are more criminal in nature, such as kidnapping and extortion. However, extortion operations by terrorist groups may still be very violent and may include bombings and hand grenade attacks.

The implementation of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) is a positive indicator for the long-term trajectory of insurgency and terrorism in Muslim Mindanao, although there are many potential stumbling points ahead in the law’s implementation.

Following a January cross-border abduction in Malaysia, the Abu Sayyaf Group has been associated again in another kidnapping incident this month in the province of Sulu. The February 4 abduction of Doctor Daniel Moreno in the province’s capital in Jolo town suggests a likely increase in ASG-perpetrated abductions for this year. PSA Consultancy recorded only three ASG-related kidnapping incidents in 2019. The kidnapping of Doctor Moreno further underscores that kidnap-for-ransom activities remain as a primary source of funding for the militant group. Sources within the security community told PSA that the ASG group led by Illam Nasirin was allegedly responsible for the incident.

In terms of geography, most activity is limited to the ARMM and its immediate outskirts in Mindanao. The insurgency will be characterized by the following tactics and techniques:

Targeting Civilians and Corporations:

• Kidnapping (concentrated in the Sulu Archipelago, the Zamboanga Peninsula, and the surroundings seas)
• Bombings and grenade attacks (within the ARMM and surrounding provinces)

Targeting Security Forces and the MILF:

• Harassment with small arms fire
• Roadside IED attacks
• Assassinations

Additionally, there will be armed encounters that result from government operations targeting insurgents. Since the end of Marawi siege, the high end of Muslim insurgent and terrorist capability has consisted of the Basilan car bomb attack on July 31, 2018 and the coordinated suicide bombing attacks in Sulu on June 28, 2019.