VP Sara Duterte’s Satisfaction Rating Dip After Resignation, But Still Leads 2028 Presidential Bets Anew

After Vice President Sara Duterte announced her resignation from the administration’s cabinet as education chief and vice chair of the anti-insurgency committee NTF-ELCAC in June, a recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey has indicated a significant increase in dissatisfaction with her performance among Filipinos during her term.

Decline in net satisfaction rating

In a survey conducted from June 23 to July 1, SWS reported that approximately 65 percent of Filipinos were satisfied with Vice President Duterte, while 21 percent were dissatisfied, yielding a net satisfaction rating of +44. This figure represents a notable 19-point decrease from her +63 rating in March of this year. Analysts note that Vice President Duterte resigned on June 19 as the two-year alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. deteriorated into strained relations between the Marcos and Duterte families.

Compared to the March 2024 Quarter 1 survey, Vice President Duterte’s net satisfaction declined by 26 points in Balance Luzon (the entirety of Luzon region excluding the National Capital Region), from a very good +55 to a +29. In Visayas, it dropped by 22 points from “very good” +69 to a +47 rating. In the National Capital Region, satisfaction fell by 17 points from a “good” +49 to a +32 standing. In Mindanao, it decreased by 7 points from an excellent rating of +80 to a +73 score.

Interestingly, the latest SWS survey still showed higher satisfaction ratings for Vice President Duterte among individuals with the lowest educational attainment. She received a “very good” rating (+54) from those without elementary education and a “good” rating (+42) from elementary graduates. Compared to the March 2024 Quarter 1 survey, net satisfaction with the Vice President declined by 11 points among non-elementary graduates, dropping from a very good +65 to a +54. Among elementary graduates, satisfaction decreased by 18 points from a very good +60 to +42. For high school graduates, it fell by 21 points from a very good +64 to +43. Among college graduates, satisfaction dropped by 22 points from a very good +62 to +40.

Analysts note that SWS conducted nationwide face-to-face interviews of 1,500 Filipino participants aged 18 and above. It is divided into 600 participants for Balance Luzon and 300 each for Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao.

Sara Duterte is still the top choice for 2028 president

Following her resignation from the Marcos cabinet and a decline in satisfaction rating in SWS surveys, Vice President Duterte continued to lead the 2028 presidential bet in the recent second-quarter opinion poll conducted by Oculum Research and Analytics.

Ratings for Sara fell to 25.4 percent from her 42 percent rating in the first quarter Oculum survey, Vice President Duterte’s popularity in Mindanao has remained strong reflecting a consistent regional backing despite overall decline. Senator Raffy Tulfo secured the second position, favored by 18.5 percent of respondents, while 10.6 percent selected former Vice President Leni Robredo as their preferred candidate for the 2028 presidential election.

Head of Oculum Research and Managing Director of the Asia-Pacific Consortium of Researchers and Educators Inc (APCoRE) Dr. Racidon Bernarte noted that the survey results presented a nuanced view of the Philippine electoral landscape.

“Inday Sara Duterte emerges as the current frontrunner with widespread support, particularly strong in Mindanao. Sen. Raffy Tulfo, while second overall, shows a broad appeal across various regions. Former vice president Leni Robredo, although third, has concentrated support in Southern Luzon,” Dr. Bernarte said. 

Oculum’s report was published shortly after the SWS Quarter 2 survey, which also indicated a decline in Duterte’s satisfaction rating. Analysts note that Ocular Research and Analytics interviewed 1,200 adults aged 18 and above face-to-face from June 25 to 30, after her controversial resignation as education secretary on June 19.

Presidential bid ‘at risk’ amid declining support and impeachment rumors

While Vice President Sara Duterte has not announced any plans for the May 2028 elections, Manila’s third district Representative Joel Chua suggested that the significant drop in her SWS polls “could impact her chances in the 2028 presidential race.” Representative Chua noted that Duterte’s 19-point decline in recent polls, along with allegations involving her family, might “embolden potential rivals and weaken her ability to secure early endorsements or support from key political allies.” He further indicated that this situation could alter the dynamics within her political base, leading to internal challenges and diminishing her appeal to the broader electorate.

With growing friction, a few members of the House of Representatives dismissed claims that the lower chamber was preparing an impeachment case against Vice President Sara. In a press conference on August 12, Ako Bicol Representative Jil Bongalon, House assistant majority leader Representative Francisco Paolo Ortega V, and Lanao del Sur Representative Zia Alonto Adiong denied allegations made by former presidential spokesperson Harry Roque that the lower house is organizing the impeachment process against the current vice president.

Representative Ortega clarified that he had not heard of such plans in the House and asked Roque to clear up his allegations. “We’re sticking to the facts… We’re sticking to the issues in the House of Representatives, and nothing like that is being discussed,” the House leader said in English and Filipino.

Ako Bicol Representative Bongalon supported Ortega’s remarks and noted that it wouldn’t be surprising if some factions pursued impeachment against Vice President Duterte to hold her accountable. “It would not be a surprise if somebody would file an impeachment case against the vice president,” the lawmaker said in an interview.