Business Preparedness Amid Earthquake Risk in Metro Manila
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The earthquake risk to Metro Manila is well documented by scientific institutions. The threat comes from two main sources, the West Valley Fault, which is capable of generating a 7.2 magnitude earthquake, and the Manila Trench, which is capable of generating an 8.0 magnitude earthquake and poses a tsunami risk to the Philippines.
In many ways, the best report on the earthquake risk and its impact remains the 2004 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). In the event of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake emanating from the West Valley Fault, this MMEIRS estimated that 34,000 people in Metro Manila will die while 114,000 people will be injured. Meanwhile, the same report estimated that 170,000 residential houses will collapse while 340,000 residential houses will be partly damaged during the quake. The report also stated the possibility of a fire breakout across the region, which will cover approximately 1,710 hectares and kill 18,000 additional people. Infrastructure and lifeline are also expected to be heavily damaged from the quake. The MMEIRS report is still available online, but it is scattered across multiple downloads. The MMEIRS study contains the most comprehensive set of planning assumptions about damages to Metro Manila, although certain components have been updated by more recent studies (such as estimates about building collapse and casualties).
Since the 2004 MMEIRS report, there have been a number of important reports released. In 2015, the MMDA released the Metro Manila Earthquake Contingency Plan, Oplan Metro Yakal Plus. The original Oplan Metro Yakal (2011) aimed to take the lessons from the MMEIRS study and operationalize it into a contingency plan. One of the key takeaways for example, was an effort to plan around the concept of “regional separation.” Regional separation in the context of the MMEIRS report means that Metro Manila would be separated in four quadrants by infrastructure damages, and it would be difficult to travel between each quadrant. Oplan Metro Yakal Plus updated this effort. In many ways, Oplan Metro Yakal Plus is out of date, and a new up-to-date version is reportedly underway but has yet to be released. Oplan Metro Yakal Plus is fully available for download online.
There have been other reports by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and PHIVOLCS that have updated the building collapse and casualty estimates for a Metro Manila earthquake. The Greater Metro Manila Area Risk Analysis Project (GMMA RAP), produced in partnership with the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) amongst other institutions, expanded the damage analysis to the neighboring provinces of Metro Manila. GMMA RAP estimates 37,000 fatalities and 605,000 injuries. Injury estimates are significantly higher than the MMEIRS study for a number of reasons, including that the MMEIRS study only attempted to calculate significant injuries, while GMMA RAP also attempted to calculate minor injuries, and that GMMA RAP includes the neighboring provinces as well as Metro Manila itself. GMMA RAP is fully available online.
Outside of the above reports, PHIVOLCS updates the casualty estimates for a 7.2 earthquake from the West Valley Fault. The latest estimate from May 2019 is of 43,291 fatalities and over 800,000 injuries (ranging from slight to critical).
This report is not a scientific analysis and is not meant to supplant the above reports, but is meant to discuss emerging best practices for business continuity and employee safety for organizations in Metro Manila. PSA believes that best practices surrounding this threat are often not well agreed to or established, particularly because of the uncertainty surrounding how “The Big One” will impact Metro Manila. There are no international standards for earthquake preparedness in a lower middle-income country, particularly in one of the most densely populated cities in the world. For individuals that are responsible for mitigating the earthquake risk for an organization, individuals often find themselves with an understanding of the threat, make preparations, and then they learn some new piece of information that fundamentally challenges their planning assumptions about how they and their organization will be impacted.
