Former Justice Carpio: ICC Will Likely Issue Arrest Warrant Against Rodrigo Duterte, Other Drug War Personalities by September

As individuals associated with former President Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war scramble to avoid local scrutiny, the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s investigation has reportedly reached a crucial stage with the potential issuance of arrest warrants next month. Political analyst Richard Heydarian and retired Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio claimed to have received information about the release of warrants in September against Duterte and other top officials of his administration.

“I think the day of reckoning is coming closer because what I’m hearing is that a warrant of arrest will be issued by the ICC sometime in September,” Carpio stated in an interview with Heydarian. Heydarian, who recently visited The Hague in the Netherlands, where the ICC is based, echoed similar sentiments. Heydarian also noted that he was aware the arrest warrants were likely to come later this year and questioned whether they would be issued before the filing period for the 2025 Midterm Elections, scheduled from October 1 to 8.

While allegations arise within legal and political circles, the Department of Justice said they have not received any information about the alleged release of warrants against Duterte.

“We are not aware of [the allegations on ICC’s decision]…None of our government agencies have been informed about anything,” DOJ Undersecretary Raul Vasquez said in a media forum. The statement comes as a surprise given that the justice department previously outlined scenarios of how the Philippine authorities and law enforcement could implement a possible red notice from the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) against the subjects of the drug war.

“We are not in the business of blocking any movement at Interpol,” Justice Secretary Jesus Remulla said in an interview. Analysts note that while the Philippines withdrew from the ICC in 2019, the country remains a member of the Interpol and is obliged to cooperate with its procedures, including any potential ‘red notices’ related to the ICC’s investigations.

Caution against any public announcements

Human Rights lawyer and ICC Assistant to Counsel Kristina Conti warned the public against making statements on the potential issuance of arrest warrants. Conti emphasized that such announcements could interfere with the investigation’s progress and endanger the security of those involved.

“There’s sensitivity in the actual arrest. It’s better to not announce the issuance so that there will be [an element of] surprise,” Conti said in an interview.

The allegations regarding the release of ICC arrest warrants first emerged in May this year when former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV revealed that his sources indicated that warrants would likely be released by June or July. However, representatives from the ICC Prosecutor’s Office recently told Rappler in July that they requested to speak with five top police officials, both active and retired, during Duterte’s administration including:

• Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, who was Duterte’s police chief and architect of the drug war
• Former police chief Oscar Albayalde
• Northern Luzon Police commander Major General Romeo Caramat
• Former National Police Commissioner (Napolcom) commissioner Edilberto Leonardo
• Former police chief intelligence officer Eleazar Matta

What Happens to the Former President Once the ICC Warrant Comes Out?

Former President Rodrigo Duterte has been mentioned by many observers as the most likely target of an arrest warrant by the ICC. Executing an arrest warrant against the former President, if it comes down to it, will be a tactically challenging and politically daunting affair marred with many questions and uncertainties about its execution.

There are allegations that the Philippine National Police (PNP) started cleansing Davao Regional Police and Davao City Police after a series of post reassignments and reshuffling were announced in June this year. While it coincided with locating the whereabouts of international fugitive and Kingdom of Jesus Christ Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, analysts note that this could be a potential development to stabilize potential unrest and instability in Davao City while ICC investigations are ongoing. Others say these developments are seen as a tactic to remove police officers who are loyal or tied to the Duterte family either providing some sort of protection or potentially obstructing efforts of law enforcement agencies.

There are also concerns of a potential outbreak of some form of violence once the arrest warrant is served to the former President at his bailiwick in Davao City. The Duterte family reportedly owns around 300 guns and is allegedly protected by a private army group. They are also surrounded by a large base of supporters who are ready to defend the former President if called to.