Assessment of Ongoing Foreign Conflicts and Tensions

China and Taiwan Tensions

The foreign conflict scenario that holds the greatest risk for the Philippines continues to be a potential China-Taiwan conflict. In a potential conflict between China on one side and Taiwan and the United States (US) on the other, the Philippines is particularly exposed because of its geographical proximity to Taiwan, insufficient energy and food security, and potentiality to be drawn into the conflict, even possibly against its own will.

The Philippine national security community increasingly is planning for different scenarios over this potential conflict. But while military planning continues, the lack of civil defense planning for foreign conflict is a major gap. The national security community of the Philippines continues to focus on scenarios like refugee inflows and evacuating Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), which pale in comparison to the fundamental economic challenges the country would face during a China-Taiwan conflict. 

Read the full assessment here.