Executive Summary

• In 2024, the NPA is considered to be at its lowest point in recent history in terms of manpower and capacity. This decline is expected to continue well into 2025, with very limited indications of a rebound of capacities within the year. The Communist insurgency in the Philippines has largely been in decline since its high points in 2018 and 2019 following successive military operations against rebels.
• Most NPA-related violent incidents in 2024 were armed encounters resulting from military-initiated operations. The concentration of these encounters was in Negros Occidental and Northern Samar, followed by Masbate, Camarines Sur, and Agusan del Sur.
• It appears that the NPA was not able to stage significant, sophisticated attacks against corporations with no recorded violent incidents against them in the past year. PSA also did not receive or record reports of extortion against companies in 2024. Analysts believe this is emblematic of the NPA’s diminished capacity to conduct larger attacks such as coordinated raids against companies.
• In the short term, PSA expects the Communist insurgency’s activity to fluctuate monthly as it usually does, but the yearly decline is likely to hold in the medium term. In its current state, analysts largely suspect that the movement will have difficulty expanding and regaining its strength, but do not rule out the possibility in the medium to long-term.
• At the NPA’s depleted state, PSA believes the Communist insurgency now only poses a very limited and geographically and/or industry-specific threat to companies’ day-to-day operations. It is difficult to imagine how the NPA may still derail a major investment anywhere nationwide. The most likely threat that the NPA may pose to the private sector at present will be extortions and unintentional involvement in the crossfires of military encounters.
• The general rule is to always closely coordinate with law enforcement and local government to ensure that a company undertakes the appropriate security measures needed for any form of NPA violence in their areas of operation.