Executive Summary

• In 2024, the Islamist insurgency is considered to be at a very low point compared to its heights in 2018 and 2019. PSA expects the threat of terrorist activity against civilians and the private sector to continue declining in 2025, though it will not disappear altogether.
• Most Islamist-related violent incidents PSA recorded in 2024 were encounters that originated from military operations against militants. The vast concentration of these encounters was in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) and its neighboring provinces.
• Remnants of Islamist threat groups were not able to stage any significant attacks against the private sector in 2024. PSA can note with great confidence that remnants of Islamist groups in their current state will have limited capacity to conduct major attacks against civilians in general, and their activity will likely remain confined to the BARMM and its immediate outskirts.
• Most Islamist-related violent incidents involved remnants of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and the Maute Group. Both groups were primarily involved in encounters resulting from government operations against them.
• PSA notes that as Islamist threat groups weaken further, it becomes more difficult to distinguish between criminal and terrorist threats. The threat of criminal group activity is usually more immediate to the private sector, but because of criminal groups’ lower profiles, it is more difficult to map comprehensively.
• As a general rule, PSA recommends that clients closely coordinate and consult with their private security/risk advisors, law enforcement and local government, especially when traveling in areas like the BARMM. Prohibiting travel with public officials or candidates should be considered during the election season, given the region’s high incidence of political violence.