Philippines Communist Insurgency Report – May 2018
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PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: Over the short-term, PSA anticipates that communist insurgency activity will continue at an elevated rate but will slowly decrease in intensity as the government counterinsurgency effort impacts NPA operational capability. PSA notes, however, that that the slight increase of incidents in May 2018 could be attributed to the NPA’s intensified activities during the election period.
Over the long term, the situation is characterized by uncertainty depending on several factors – including government policies and the degree of success of the government’s counterinsurgency strategy.
In May 2018, government and communist representatives held backchannel talks in Europe to iron out details of the resumption of peace talks. However, the talks were postponed in June for at least three months as the government decided to review its agreements with the communists.
In terms of geography, NPA activity will continue to take place in rural areas throughout the country. There are a few exceptions including Cebu province and the ARMM, as well as some areas in the Luzon and Visayas regions.
PSA notes, however, that there have been recorded arrests in urban areas, including Metro Manila and its peripheries. Urban mobilization activities, such as protests and recruitment from urban leftist organizations, are expected to continue.
The communist insurgency is still characterized by the following tactics and techniques:
Targeting Corporations:
- Extortion
- Arson
- Raid that involve seizure of firearms
Targeting Security Forces
- Assassinations
- Harassment (limited engagements with small arms fire)
- Small arms and IED ambushes
The majority of violent incidents will be armed encounters that result from government operations targeting communist insurgents.
The NPA has an infrequent capability to conduct large-scale and coordinated attacks against multiple targets, including simultaneous attacks against security forces and corporations, along with blocking actions that delay security force response. Nationwide, no operation of this level of sophistication has occurred in 2018. PSA believes that this is indicative of diminished NPA capability in the face of government offensives.