Philippines Communist Insurgency Report – July 2019

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PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: Over the short term, PSA anticipates that the high level of uncertainty will affect the intensity of communist insurgency activity. NPA incidents will continue to fluctuate in frequency month to month. However NPA operational capacity does appear diminished in comparison to 2017 and 2018, largely as a result of government operations.

Over the long term, the situation is also characterized by uncertainty depending on several factors – including the success of the government’s economic development policies. The CPP/NPA retains a level of popular support and the capacity to recruit and fund raise through so called “legal fronts.”

Backchannel talks between government and communist representatives are still on hold indefinitely. The government has set preconditions that are unlikely to be accepted by communist leadership.

In terms of geography, NPA activity will continue to take place in rural areas throughout the country. There are a few exceptions including Cebu province and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), as well as some areas in the Luzon and Visayas regions.

PSA notes, however, that there are often recorded arrests in urban areas, including Metro Manila and its peripheries.

The communist insurgency is still characterized by the following tactics, techniques, and characteristics:

Targeting Security Forces

  • Assassinations
  • Harassment (limited engagements with small arms fire)
  • Small arms and IED ambushes

Targeting Corporations with Distributed Operations in Rural Areas:

  • Extortion
  • Arson
  • Raids that involve the seizure of firearms

Other Violence Effecting Civilians:

  • Targeted assassinations of former rebels, suspected informants, local government leaders, and tribal leaders.
  • Unintentional civilian casualties resulting from NPA attacks against the security forces and other targets.

The majority of violent incidents will still be armed encounters that result from government operations targeting communist insurgents.

The NPA historically has an infrequent capability to conduct large-scale and coordinated attacks against multiple targets. Nationwide, no successful operations of that level of sophistication have occurred in 2019. PSA believes that this is indicative of diminished NPA capability in the face of government offensives.