Philippines Communist Insurgency Report – February 2018
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PSA’s Forward Looking Assessment: Over the short-term, PSA anticipates that communist insurgency activity will continue at an elevated rate. Over the long term, the situation is characterized by uncertainty depending on several factors – including government policies and the degree of success of the government’s counterinsurgency strategy.
In terms of geography, NPA activity will continue to take place in rural areas throughout the country. There are a few exceptions including Cebu province, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and some areas in the Luzon region that are not NPA areas of operations. PSA notes, however, that there have been recorded NPA arrests in urban areas including Metro Manila and its peripheries. Urban mobilization activities, such as protests and recruitment from urban leftist organizations, are expected to continue.
The insurgency is characterized by the following tactics and techniques:
Targeting Corporations:
- Extortion
- Arson
- Raids that involve the seizure of firearms from security guards
Targeting Security Forces:
- Assassinations
- Harassment (limited engagements with small arms fire)
- Small arms and IED ambushes
The majority of armed encounters will result from government operations targeting communist insurgents.
The NPA has an infrequent capability to conduct large-scale and coordinated attacks against multiple targets – including simultaneous attacks against security forces and/or corporations along with blocking actions to delay security force response. Nationwide, a sophisticated operation of this nature happens approximately once every three to five months.
