Running Assessments Summary

Click on an Assessment to read the full details.
AssessmentExcerptLast UpdateGauge
1873472022-11-15Communist Insurgency2024-02-167510
1535902021-12-03Crime2024-03-20NEW504
1802962022-06-21Foreign Conflict2023-10-032510
1873492022-11-15Islamist Insurgency2024-02-167510
1536842023-12-14Political Stability and Civil Unrest2024-02-0703

Political Stability and Civil Unrest


PSA is concerned that the ongoing conflict between President Ferdinand Jr. Marcos and former President Rodrigo Duterte is likely to escalate further, but it is unlikely to impact the day-to-day operations of the Philippine government. PSA does not see the conflict escalating to levels that will result to the destabilization of the current administration in …

This content is only available to members.


Crime


Updates on Crime Law enforcement officials claim that crime is generally decreasing in the country, but analysts note that it is typical of the Philippine National Police (PNP) to state that crime is going down based on unconventional timelines. But as of this time, analysts do concur that crime is relatively closer to being stable and that crime appears to be …

This content is only available to members.


Islamist Insurgency


PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: PSA is still optimistic that the security gains stemming from the Bangsamoro Peace Process may potentially be more permanent in nature. The peace process has survived the transition to a new Presidential administration, and even appears more inclusive with the members of the Misuari faction of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) …

This content is only available to members.


Foreign Conflict


PSA assesses that foreign conflict risk in the Philippines is currently low but geopolitical tensions over the next decade are likely to continue to increase between China and Taiwan, and any conflict over Taiwan would have a major impact on the Philippines even if the Philippines remains a neutral party. The territorial dispute with China over the …

This content is only available to members.


Communist Insurgency


PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: Over the short term, PSA anticipates that communist insurgency activity will continue to fluctuate on a month-to-month basis, but it will continue to trend downwards over the long term. NPA operational capacity is clearly diminished in comparison to 2017 and 2018, and the vast majority of NPA activity is conducted by small …

This content is only available to members.