Running Assessments Summary

Political Stability and Civil Unrest

PSA is not concerned about political stability in the Philippines in the short to medium term. Other than the increasing cost of living, and particularly likely further increases in the cost of food, PSA sees few signs of potential political instability. Protests remain small and overwhelmingly peaceful, the President remains popular, and the opposition is focused ...

Crime

In terms of overall trends of crime statistics, there has been a slight increase in crime in parallel to the reopening of the economy based upon crime statistics in the first half of the year.  PSA is still reviewing statistics for the third quarter of 2022. PSA anticipates that there will be an increase of cybercrime ...

Foreign Conflict

PSA assesses that foreign conflict risk in the Philippines is low but geopolitical tensions over the next decade are likely to increase between China and Taiwan, and any conflict over Taiwan would have a major impact on the Philippines even if the Philippines remains a neutral party. The territorial dispute with China over the West Philippine Sea ...

Communist Insurgency

PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: Over the short term, PSA anticipates that the high level of uncertainty will affect the intensity of communist insurgency activity. NPA incidents will continue to fluctuate in frequency month to month. However, NPA operational capacity is clearly diminished in comparison to 2017 and 2018, largely as a result of government operations. The ...

Islamist Insurgency

PSA’s Forward-Looking Assessment: PSA is increasingly optimistic that the security gains stemming from the Bangsamoro Peace Process may potentially be more permanent in nature. The peace process has survived the transition to a new Presidential administration, and even appears more inclusive with the members of the Misuari faction of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) ...