Photographer: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

Philippine Military and Law Enforcement Brace for Attacks in BARMM Ahead of October Barangay Polls


August 22, 2023
Updated on August 22, 2023
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Philippine military and law enforcement officials recently stated that preparations are underway for the contentious October barangay elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) as violent attacks, particularly over political rivalries and clan feuds, are likely to increase in the months leading to the elections. Officials have begun issuing warnings against the possession of firearms as part of a nationwide elections gun ban from August through November. On August 11, police officials identified the towns of Datu Odin Sinsuat, Sultan Mastura, and Parang in Maguindanao del Norte, along with 20 other areas that have yet to be disclosed as high-priority areas requiring intensified security measures in the upcoming elections. 

This month, however, at least four potentially election-related violent attacks have occurred in the Bangsamoro region. These attacks left two troops, one government official and the son of another government official killed, and injured seven troops and one government official. 

  • August 12 – Authorities reported an armed encounter against former MILF members that fired towards the convoy of a Basilan vice mayor in Ungkaya Pukan town left two troops killed and seven others wounded. 
  • August 14 – One hand grenade exploded in front of a former Commission on Elections (Comelec) chairperson’s residence in Cotabato City.
  • August 16 – A suspected improvised explosive device (IED) went off near the village hall of Ganta, Shariff Saydona Mustapha. One village chairman, identified as Jun Silongan, was killed while another official was wounded. Authorities note that the fatality was the brother of a town councilor who was assassinated near the town hall in Datu Salibo in April this year.
  • August 21 – Unidentified gunmen shot and killed the son of the city administrator in Cotabato City. The victim’s brother was a city councilor.  

Prior to this, credible sources relayed their concerns about a perceived rise in crime in the Bangsamoro region. This prompted its regional police leadership to order the review of local anti-criminality strategies amid a spike in violent attacks in the region early this year. Analysts note that most of these attacks are driven by gun-related violence resulting from clan feuds or rido, especially within political families in the region.

On the Bangsamoro peace process, the Philippine government completed the third phase of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s (MILF) decommissioning process this month, thereby disarming some 28,000 out of 40,000 combatants. The Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity (OPAPRU) stated that the Marcos administration is committed to the Bangsamoro peace process and that the government plans to start the fourth and last phase of the decommissioning in the last quarter of 2023. From 2015 to 2022, around 28,844 MILF combatants have been decommissioned, while around 6,000 fighters obtained skills training and basic education during the third phase of the process.

Several organizations have expressed their concerns about the actual accomplishments of the government’s decommissioning process of MILF fighters. In May this year, the International Crisis Group (ICG) stated in its report that the Bangsamoro peace process is both on track and in peril amid budget concerns and “political realities” in the region. Four BARMM governors claimed in February that “only 4,625 firearms” of the MILF fighters have been decommissioned, a far number from the estimated 20,000 disarmed combatants at the time according to the government. 

PSA notes that in July, five of six governors of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) appealed to the secretaries of national defense and local government to discuss BARMM’s peace and order situation with the Cabinet members and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The region’s five governors raised concerns over “potential unrest” in BARMM amid the upcoming barangay elections on October 30 this year if the Department of National Defense and the Department of the Interior and Local Government do not properly manage the decommissioning process of the MILF fighters. In a statement to the media, Lanao del Sur Governor and Bangsamoro Government Center Spokesperson Mamintal Alonto Adiong Jr. said that BARMM officials ‘wish to convey to the Cabinet and to President Marcos Jr. the problems on the peace and order situation in the region, particularly that the decommissioning process has not been effective, and that they ask the executive officials to review the process.’