China Rams the Philippines’ BRP Teresa Magbanua in Escoda Shoal, Capping Off a Month of Collisions in the West Philippine Sea

A China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel directly collided with and rammed the BRP Teresa Magbanua, stationed since April this year in the Escoda Shoal, in what has become an almost-weekly series of encounters in the West Philippine Sea this August. Some analysts are flagging the frequency of these kinds of incidents and what seems to be China’s sustained effort to push the Philippines out of the shoal. PSA maintains that the risk of significant escalation to the point of war in the disputed waterways remains unlikely. 

One Last Hurrah for August

On Saturday, August 31, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported that CCG vessel CCG-5205 rammed BRP Teresa Magbanua three times as the latter was conducting patrols around Escoda (Sabina) Shoal.  

BRP Teresa Magbanua had initially hoisted its anchor from the shoal to conduct patrols in its surroundings when CCG-5205 reportedly quickly approached the vessel and directly rammed its port bow. Later on, CCG-5205 reportedly “turned around” and rammed “directly and intentionally” into BRP Teresa Magbanua’s starboard quarter and port beam. Prior to the incident, the PCG reported that BRP Teresa Magbanua was immediately surrounded by at least two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) tugboats and two other CCG vessels. 

Despite the damage incurred by the ship, the PCG stated that BRP Teresa Magbanua will remain stationed in the West Philippine Sea. Analysts believe this highlights the Philippines’ intentions to maintain a long-term, if not permanent, presence in Escoda Shoal, similar to the presence of the grounded BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal. 

“An Attack in Plain Sight”

This is reportedly the seventh known encounter between Chinese and Philippine vessels and aircraft this month and is the third near Escoda Shoal. Last week, two different Philippine resupply missions were initially unsuccessful after Chinese vessels consistently blocked the passage of Philippine supply boats heading to the vicinity of Escoda Shoal. The PCG later succeeded in resupplying BRP Teresa Magbanua via helicopter. 

Several observers and analysts have noted that the most recent incident in Escoda Shoal appeared to be “an attack in plain sight.” China had been consistently challenging the Philippines’ presence in the shoal and recently asserted that it “will take the measures required to resolutely thwart all acts of provocation, nuisance and infringement and resolutely safeguard the country’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.” 

China’s sustained aggression against Philippine forces in the West Philippine Sea is seen by some observers as a move to get the Philippine vessel to leave Escoda Shoal. Retired Philippine Navy Rear Admiral Rommel Ong argued that if China gets BRP Teresa Magbanua to leave the shoal, China will almost certainly “take over” and potentially lay the groundwork for reclaiming and militarizing Escoda, similar to what has happened in Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal). 

It may be for this reason why China has been adamant in blocking resupply missions to BRP Teresa Magbanua and, as seen recently, going so far as to target the vessel itself directly. Maritime expert Ray Powell noted that by blocking rotation and resupply missions, China may be forcing the Philippine vessel to sail away. Mr. Powell further added that the presence and purpose of the PLAN tugboats in the August 31 incident “cannot be discounted,” as the tugboats could have been there to tow BRP Teresa Magbanua away from the shoal.  

Higher Stakes, Calculated Risks

The recent escalation of tensions in Escoda Shoal has consistently drawn the condemnation of the Philippines’ bilateral partners, including its lone treaty ally the United States, but observers are again questioning whether statements are enough.  

Maritime security researcher Collin Koh argued that while the Philippines knows how high the stakes are in a shoal much closer to the mainland than Ayungin is, China knows that “Manila has very limited options” without direct US intervention. “China is deliberately escalating the situation, with a likely intention to test how far Washington would support Manila,” Mr. Koh added. 

Mr. Powell also recognized that China seems to be picking up and sustaining its pace in the West Philippine Sea. “They have the capacity and they have the will, and they have not seen anything yet that says to them that the cost is going to be too high.” To that extent, Retired Rear Admiral Ong argued that the Philippines “needs to find that sweet spot in terms of response, in which it is willing to take a calculated risk to stop China from further gaining a foothold inside our exclusive economic zone.” 

What that calculated risk may look like, and whether it deviates significantly from the status quo, is yet to be seen at this point. But the Philippines maintained that it will not be asking the US for direct intervention or auxiliary support anytime soon. Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief General Romeo Brawner made this clear as he revealed that the US has indeed offered the Philippines support for its maritime patrols among “a range of options,” which the Philippines has since declined. 

War Remains Unlikely 

Despite the current escalation in Escoda Shoal, PSA continues to assess that there is no significant risk of war or serious armed conflict between China and the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea. The two countries will undoubtedly remain locked in a long-term dispute over sovereignty, but they are both likely to work on de-escalation measures after particularly concerning incidents, such as the clash in June which resulted in serious injuries to a Philippine Navy sailor.  

There is a real risk of death of Philippine personnel in these clashes, at which point President Marcos’s threshold for the activation of the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States will be crossed. The activation of the MDT does not guarantee war however, and even in the case of its activation, the Philippine and US governments are likely to work to craft a joint policy response designed to lower the risk of war.  

Additionally, as evidenced by the AFP’s recent statements, the Philippines is likely to exhaust all measures available short of invoking the MDT. Involvement in a war in the West Philippine Sea may also not be in the US’s interests anytime soon, especially as it remains occupied with the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict in the Middle East, and its own upcoming presidential elections this November.